Published: Thursday, 4 Mar 2010 | 8:41 AM ET
New claims for jobless benefits fell last week in a sign that layoffs may be easing as the economy slowly recovers.
The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 469,000. That nearly matches Wall Street analysts' estimates of 470,000.
Still, any improvement in the job market is likely to be slow, as companies remain reluctant to hire. Last week's drop only partly reverses a sharp rise in claims in the previous two weeks.
The drop in unemployment coincided with a considerable rise in productivity.
The four-week average of claims, which smooths out volatility, fell by 3,500 to 470,750. Despite the drop, the average has risen by about 20,000 since the beginning of the year.
Initial claims have been volatile in recent weeks as last month's severe snowstorms in the Northeast have distorted the data.
Claims rose sharply two weeks ago partly because several states processed a backlog of claims that had built up from previous weeks when government offices closed due to the bad weather. No states reported backlogs this week, a Labor Department analyst said.
The number of people continuing to claim benefits, meanwhile, fell more than expected to 4.5 million.
But the so-called continuing claims do not include millions of people who have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states, and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government.
Nearly 5.9 million people were receiving extended benefits in the week ended Feb. 13, the latest data available, up from about 5.7 million the previous week. The extended benefit data isn't seasonally adjusted and is volatile from week to week.
In a separate report, the government said productivity in the final three months of last year surged at a faster pace than previously thought as labor costs fell more rapidly.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that productivity jumped at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, even better than an initial estimate of a 6.2 percent growth rate. Unit labor costs fell at a rate of 5.9 percent, a bigger drop than the 4.4 percent decline initially estimated.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 05:43:07 04 Mar 2010
LinksList Documentid: 35704771
* As Stimulus Fades, So May Jobs
* Fed: Weak Economy to Keep Rates Low
* 10 Best Jobs for 2010
* More Economic News
The combination of rising productivity and falling labor costs bolsters company profits and helps keep inflation at bay. But it also puts American households under stress, leaving them with less income to increase consumer spending, the key ingredient to economic growth.
tulisan ini bersumber dari www.cnbc.com tujuannya hanyalah untuk data semata
Kamis, 04 Maret 2010
Jumat, 26 Februari 2010
Ilustrasi perhitungan profit/loss hasil Transaksi
Ilustrasi Trading USD/JPY di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta
Initial margin in ( deposit awal) Rp. 100 juta atau $ 10,000
Jenis mata uang obyek transaksi Yen Jepang
Dasar pertimbangan ; fluktuasi harian berkisar 100 s.d 150 poin dalam 3 bulan terakhir.
Target profit minimal per hari $ 100 atau 10 poin net.
Ilustrasi I.
Pada saat harga mau naik, misal Nasabah A beli USD/JPY di level harga 88.97 / 89.00 kemudian ditutup atau dijual dilevel harga 89.15 / 89.18 sebanyak 1 lot. Jadi,
Rumus perhitungan net profit :
= {(Open price – Closing price )/Liquidation price
x Contract Size x Jumlah lot }– (fee x jmlh lot)
= { ( 89.15 – 89.00 )/89.00 x $ 100,000 x 1 lot }- ( $ 50 x 1 lot )
= $ 168,50 - $ 50
= $ 118.50 perhari
Ilustrasi II.
Pada saat harga mau turun, misal Jual USD/JPY di level harga 89.15/89.18 kemudian ditutup atau dibeli dilevel harga 88.97/ 89.00 sebanyak 1 lot. Jadi,
Rumus perhitungan net profit :
= {(Open price – Closing price )/ Liquidation price x Contract Size x Jumlah lot }– (fee x jmlh lot)
= { ( 89.15 – 89.00 )/ 89.00 x $ 100,000 x 1 lot }- ( $ 50 x 1 lot )
= $ 168,50 - $50
= $ 118,50 perhari
Jika lama waktu trading adalah 1 bulan dengan asumsi 20 hari kerja (HK).
Maka asumsi dalam 1 bulan berpotensi mendapatkan keuntungan
= 20 HK x $118,50 ( level harga sekarang)
= $ 2370 atau Rp. 23.700.000,- bersih (rate Rp. 10.000,-/1 usd )
Initial margin in ( deposit awal) Rp. 100 juta atau $ 10,000
Jenis mata uang obyek transaksi Yen Jepang
Dasar pertimbangan ; fluktuasi harian berkisar 100 s.d 150 poin dalam 3 bulan terakhir.
Target profit minimal per hari $ 100 atau 10 poin net.
Ilustrasi I.
Pada saat harga mau naik, misal Nasabah A beli USD/JPY di level harga 88.97 / 89.00 kemudian ditutup atau dijual dilevel harga 89.15 / 89.18 sebanyak 1 lot. Jadi,
Rumus perhitungan net profit :
= {(Open price – Closing price )/Liquidation price
x Contract Size x Jumlah lot }– (fee x jmlh lot)
= { ( 89.15 – 89.00 )/89.00 x $ 100,000 x 1 lot }- ( $ 50 x 1 lot )
= $ 168,50 - $ 50
= $ 118.50 perhari
Ilustrasi II.
Pada saat harga mau turun, misal Jual USD/JPY di level harga 89.15/89.18 kemudian ditutup atau dibeli dilevel harga 88.97/ 89.00 sebanyak 1 lot. Jadi,
Rumus perhitungan net profit :
= {(Open price – Closing price )/ Liquidation price x Contract Size x Jumlah lot }– (fee x jmlh lot)
= { ( 89.15 – 89.00 )/ 89.00 x $ 100,000 x 1 lot }- ( $ 50 x 1 lot )
= $ 168,50 - $50
= $ 118,50 perhari
Jika lama waktu trading adalah 1 bulan dengan asumsi 20 hari kerja (HK).
Maka asumsi dalam 1 bulan berpotensi mendapatkan keuntungan
= 20 HK x $118,50 ( level harga sekarang)
= $ 2370 atau Rp. 23.700.000,- bersih (rate Rp. 10.000,-/1 usd )
CHARTING MARKETS:Dollar Soldiers On, Dollar/Yen Generally Weak
By Stephen Cox, CMT
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMNNEW YORK
Dow Jones)--In general, it's the specifics of technical analysis that will come back to bite you.
Specifically, is the weak dollar/yen cross discounting a downturn of the Dollar Index? That may be the case if dollar/yen falls below a nearby technical support level.
The dollar is generally strong Thursday. That's not news given the uptrend of the Dollar Index since November. The Dollar Index, as of this writing, is trading near 80.900, and so is close to the top of its uptrend since November. See chart at
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3521
On the other hand, what may turn out to be newsy is an imminent downturn of the index given its recent test of the 81.163-82.820 resistance band, which, I believe, may include an important top.
If the dollar is set up for a downturn then I wonder if that event is being anticipated by Thursday's conspicuous weakness of the dollar/yen cross as shown on the daily chart. See chart at
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3522
In contrast with the Dollar Index chart above, this chart shows that the dollar's uptrend against the yen beginning in November broke down in January. I estimate that the dollar is going for Y88.01 target support, which may be an interim bottom. If such a bottom doesn't materialize then the dollar would be going for support at Y86.34.
In any case the dollar is weak below Y90.77, which now is the nearest stop for trades based on the daily chart.
The question without a clear answer is this: Would a dollar move below Y88.01 more or less coincide with a Dollar Index fall away from the 81.163-82.820 resistance band? If that turns out then the dollar/yen will have anticipated a general downturn of the dollar.
There's always the prospect of a big dollar bounce from Y88.01 and corresponding Dollar Index move above 81.163-82.820 resistance of course. The point is that the answer may be as close as the dollar is to Y88.01.
(Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones Newswires. He can be reached at 212-416-2212 or by email at stephen.cox@dowjones.com.)
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMNNEW YORK
Dow Jones)--In general, it's the specifics of technical analysis that will come back to bite you.
Specifically, is the weak dollar/yen cross discounting a downturn of the Dollar Index? That may be the case if dollar/yen falls below a nearby technical support level.
The dollar is generally strong Thursday. That's not news given the uptrend of the Dollar Index since November. The Dollar Index, as of this writing, is trading near 80.900, and so is close to the top of its uptrend since November. See chart at
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3521
On the other hand, what may turn out to be newsy is an imminent downturn of the index given its recent test of the 81.163-82.820 resistance band, which, I believe, may include an important top.
If the dollar is set up for a downturn then I wonder if that event is being anticipated by Thursday's conspicuous weakness of the dollar/yen cross as shown on the daily chart. See chart at
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3522
In contrast with the Dollar Index chart above, this chart shows that the dollar's uptrend against the yen beginning in November broke down in January. I estimate that the dollar is going for Y88.01 target support, which may be an interim bottom. If such a bottom doesn't materialize then the dollar would be going for support at Y86.34.
In any case the dollar is weak below Y90.77, which now is the nearest stop for trades based on the daily chart.
The question without a clear answer is this: Would a dollar move below Y88.01 more or less coincide with a Dollar Index fall away from the 81.163-82.820 resistance band? If that turns out then the dollar/yen will have anticipated a general downturn of the dollar.
There's always the prospect of a big dollar bounce from Y88.01 and corresponding Dollar Index move above 81.163-82.820 resistance of course. The point is that the answer may be as close as the dollar is to Y88.01.
(Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones Newswires. He can be reached at 212-416-2212 or by email at stephen.cox@dowjones.com.)
Kamis, 25 Februari 2010
Bernanke Eases Worries About Monetary Tightening
Published: Wednesday, 24 Feb 2010 | 1:56 PM ET
Text Size
By: Reuters
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that a weak job market and tame inflation warrant low interest rates for "an extended period," dampening speculation a policy tightening might be nearing.
In his first appearance before Congress following a testy confirmation vote in the Senate last month, Bernanke offered a relatively somber assessment of the U.S. economy despite recent signs of strong growth.
The country has lost 8.4 million jobs in a little more than two years in the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression. The Fed chief said job losses were abating, but also acknowledged the recession's toll on American workers.
"Notwithstanding the positive signs, the job market remains quite weak," Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee.
Bernanke said the U.S. central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee was prepared to support the economy with extraordinary stimulus for some time.
"The FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions—including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations—are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period," he said, echoing the Fed's most recent policy statement in late January.
Fed officials have suggested they would likely wait several months after removing the "extended period" phrase from their policy statement before proceeding to raise the benchmark overnight interbank interest rate.
U.S. stocks were solidly higher as bank shares benefited from Bernanke's vow to keep rates on hold for a prolonged period, ignoring a surprisingly weak report on new home sales report that highlighted the Fed's predicament.
New home sales slumped more than 11 percent in January even as the central bank's purchase of mortgage-related bonds and a home-buyer tax credit continued to support the market. Many analysts worry things could get even uglier over coming months, after both those programs expire.
"We may be in for a rough ride in housing," said Adam York, economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Budget Politics
Commercial real estate, where defaults are supposed to spike this year, also remains a key concern. Bernanke called it "the biggest credit issue we still have."
Bernanke's reassurances about keeping rate increases at bay also helped U.S. government bonds erase losses, and drove the dollar lower against the euro and Japanese yen. Interest rate futures pared expectations of rate hikes before year-end.
Legislators on both sides of the isle used the hearing to play out the ongoing tug-of-war in Congress over budget deficits. Committee Chairman Barney Frank leaned on Bernanke to argue that the fiscal stimulus measures enacted by Democrats have helped alleviate some of the nation's employment losses.
Republicans, for their part, wanted Bernanke's view on the long-term implications of the government's funding gap, which he said was not on a sustainable path.
"Under current projections, we have a deficit and a debt that will continue to grow," Bernanke said. Still, Bernanke said he did not believe the U.S. credit rating would be downgraded.
Sticks to Script
The Fed last week surprised markets by raising the discount rate it charges on direct emergency loans to banks.
The increase spurred fears that the central bank was about to embark on a broader push for higher borrowing costs, even though the Fed maintained the federal funds rate, its main policy tool, in a range of zero to 0.25 percent.
The central bank said the discount rate move was an effort to pull back on the measures it had taken to increase liquidity in financial markets, and did not presage tighter monetary policy, a message repeated by Bernanke on Wednesday.
"He stuck to the playbook," said John Canally, an economist at LPL Financial in Boston. "The Fed is trying to back away from its liquidity measures and to reduce its balance sheet somewhat, but the Fed is going keep rates low for an extended period."
Bernanke said, however, that the time would come for tighter policy and he argued the Fed possesses a broad array of tools to remove such accommodation when the time is right.
Among the Fed's options, he said, are reserve-draining transactions with financial institutions. One such program, a "term deposit facility" that would give banks the incentive to park their money at the central bank, could be operational shortly after being tested this spring, the Fed said in its semiannual report to Congress.
Most analysts do not expect the Fed to raise the benchmark federal funds rate until sometime in the second half of the year, at the earliest. Similarly, a Reuters poll released Wednesday showed economists expect the European Central Bank to keep euro zone interest rates on hold until the fourth quarter.
While the Fed and ECB appear to be heading toward a tightening, the situation is less clear in Britain. Bank of England policy-maker Adam Posen told Reuters Insider that the BoE would expand its quantitative easing program "if we have to."
Acknowledging congressional efforts to overhaul financial regulation in the wake of a severe crisis, Bernanke urged lawmakers to preserve the confidentiality of banks who borrow from the Fed's emergency discount window. However, he added that officials would support disclosing borrowing at other special lending facilities, though with a lag.
He defended the central bank's role in bank supervision, which is under threat from key proposals in the Senate, saying information gleaned from overseeing banks was critical in helping guide its response to the crisis.
Text Size
By: Reuters
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that a weak job market and tame inflation warrant low interest rates for "an extended period," dampening speculation a policy tightening might be nearing.
In his first appearance before Congress following a testy confirmation vote in the Senate last month, Bernanke offered a relatively somber assessment of the U.S. economy despite recent signs of strong growth.
The country has lost 8.4 million jobs in a little more than two years in the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression. The Fed chief said job losses were abating, but also acknowledged the recession's toll on American workers.
"Notwithstanding the positive signs, the job market remains quite weak," Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee.
Bernanke said the U.S. central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee was prepared to support the economy with extraordinary stimulus for some time.
"The FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions—including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations—are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period," he said, echoing the Fed's most recent policy statement in late January.
Fed officials have suggested they would likely wait several months after removing the "extended period" phrase from their policy statement before proceeding to raise the benchmark overnight interbank interest rate.
U.S. stocks were solidly higher as bank shares benefited from Bernanke's vow to keep rates on hold for a prolonged period, ignoring a surprisingly weak report on new home sales report that highlighted the Fed's predicament.
New home sales slumped more than 11 percent in January even as the central bank's purchase of mortgage-related bonds and a home-buyer tax credit continued to support the market. Many analysts worry things could get even uglier over coming months, after both those programs expire.
"We may be in for a rough ride in housing," said Adam York, economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Budget Politics
Commercial real estate, where defaults are supposed to spike this year, also remains a key concern. Bernanke called it "the biggest credit issue we still have."
Bernanke's reassurances about keeping rate increases at bay also helped U.S. government bonds erase losses, and drove the dollar lower against the euro and Japanese yen. Interest rate futures pared expectations of rate hikes before year-end.
Legislators on both sides of the isle used the hearing to play out the ongoing tug-of-war in Congress over budget deficits. Committee Chairman Barney Frank leaned on Bernanke to argue that the fiscal stimulus measures enacted by Democrats have helped alleviate some of the nation's employment losses.
Republicans, for their part, wanted Bernanke's view on the long-term implications of the government's funding gap, which he said was not on a sustainable path.
"Under current projections, we have a deficit and a debt that will continue to grow," Bernanke said. Still, Bernanke said he did not believe the U.S. credit rating would be downgraded.
Sticks to Script
The Fed last week surprised markets by raising the discount rate it charges on direct emergency loans to banks.
The increase spurred fears that the central bank was about to embark on a broader push for higher borrowing costs, even though the Fed maintained the federal funds rate, its main policy tool, in a range of zero to 0.25 percent.
The central bank said the discount rate move was an effort to pull back on the measures it had taken to increase liquidity in financial markets, and did not presage tighter monetary policy, a message repeated by Bernanke on Wednesday.
"He stuck to the playbook," said John Canally, an economist at LPL Financial in Boston. "The Fed is trying to back away from its liquidity measures and to reduce its balance sheet somewhat, but the Fed is going keep rates low for an extended period."
Bernanke said, however, that the time would come for tighter policy and he argued the Fed possesses a broad array of tools to remove such accommodation when the time is right.
Among the Fed's options, he said, are reserve-draining transactions with financial institutions. One such program, a "term deposit facility" that would give banks the incentive to park their money at the central bank, could be operational shortly after being tested this spring, the Fed said in its semiannual report to Congress.
Most analysts do not expect the Fed to raise the benchmark federal funds rate until sometime in the second half of the year, at the earliest. Similarly, a Reuters poll released Wednesday showed economists expect the European Central Bank to keep euro zone interest rates on hold until the fourth quarter.
While the Fed and ECB appear to be heading toward a tightening, the situation is less clear in Britain. Bank of England policy-maker Adam Posen told Reuters Insider that the BoE would expand its quantitative easing program "if we have to."
Acknowledging congressional efforts to overhaul financial regulation in the wake of a severe crisis, Bernanke urged lawmakers to preserve the confidentiality of banks who borrow from the Fed's emergency discount window. However, he added that officials would support disclosing borrowing at other special lending facilities, though with a lag.
He defended the central bank's role in bank supervision, which is under threat from key proposals in the Senate, saying information gleaned from overseeing banks was critical in helping guide its response to the crisis.
USD In 'Buy On Any Weakness' Territory - Technician
USD remains in a "buy on any weakness" position, says Auerbach Grayson technical strategist Richard Ross. In charting USD index, DXY currently at 80.782, technician notes a golden cross--crossing of 50- and 200-day moving averages--was formed a week ago, putting in a robust level of support around 78.6 and signaling a likely move up to at least 82. Ignore Bernanke or Greece or anything else, for now, until "market can find the 'sweet spot between arrogance and despair,'" says Ross.
MARKET TALK: EUR May Weaken On Renewed Greek Debt Worries
EUR may fall, as S&P's announcement overnight that it may cut Greek rating by 1 or 2 notches within next month fueling speculation that European risk aversion to keep growing, says Shinkin Central Bank senior dealer Jun Kato. "That was the news that investors were waiting for (to sell the euro)," he says. Adds S&P's announcement likely to weigh on EUR in coming sessions, investors will pay attention to comments from European officials regarding debt problems. Adds USD/JPY biased down over longer term as Fed Bernanke, as expected, signaled overnight Fed won't hike its rates for now, keeping interest rate differentials between Japan, U.S. narrow. His comments helped USD/JPY overnight by lifting stocks, but such effects should be "short-lived," he says. Dealers tip 89.80-90.50 range, vs 90.19 last. EUR/USD may trade in 1.3480-1.3580 range vs 1.3538 last. EUR/JPY may trade in 121.50-122.50 range vs 122.11 last. Adds investors will pay attention to U.S. durable goods sales data due later in day; Dow Jones poll of economists tip January's total orders +1.5%
Rabu, 24 Februari 2010
WORLD FOREX: Dollar Retreats As Bernanke Reaffirms Low Rates
The dollar retreated against the euro and the yen Wednesday after testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pointed to continued low interest rates.
Market reaction to Bernanke's remarks intensified as his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee progressed, pushing the euro to a session high at $1.3627 and the dollar to a session low of Y89.76 against the yen.
"It's trading off Bernanke's comments," said C.J. Gavsie, managing director, corporate and institutional foreign exchange sales, at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
"It's all about the interest rate [outlook] as far as how soon rates will be on the move, and the market adjusting to Bernanke's comments," Gavsie said.
Wednesday morning, the euro is at $1.3616 from $1.3496 and at Y122.42 from Y121.93 late Tuesday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar is at Y89.93 from Y90.18 and at CHF1.0748 from CHF1.0830, while the pound is at $1.5450 from $1.5440.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 80.427 from 80.877.
Bernanke said the U.S. economy still needs record-low interest rates for several months at least because the recovery from its deep recession is expected to be slow. The Fed chief also said the U.S. central bank is actively looking at what tools to use once the economy will need higher rates.
Outside Bernanke's testimony, the vacillation between a willingness to embrace risk and the desire to shun it remains the key driver for markets, analysts said.
"[Tuesday] we were in risk aversion mode, and [Wednesday] we've retraced some of that move," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital.
The strength in the euro and other risk-sensitive currencies in morning trading reflected gains in U.S. stocks, a key barometer of investor sentiment towards risk.
Public-sector strikes in Greece, Spain and Portugal over budget cuts are once again putting the spotlight on the debt woes of the euro zone as markets wait to see if Greece will come to the bond markets for more money before the end of the week.
Greek officials have suggested the country's EUR5 billion bond offering can't be launched while the country is on strike, but it remains unclear whether Athens still plans to offer the bonds before the week is out.
-By Don Curren, Dow Jones Newswires; 416-306-2020; don.curren@dowjones.com
Market reaction to Bernanke's remarks intensified as his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee progressed, pushing the euro to a session high at $1.3627 and the dollar to a session low of Y89.76 against the yen.
"It's trading off Bernanke's comments," said C.J. Gavsie, managing director, corporate and institutional foreign exchange sales, at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
"It's all about the interest rate [outlook] as far as how soon rates will be on the move, and the market adjusting to Bernanke's comments," Gavsie said.
Wednesday morning, the euro is at $1.3616 from $1.3496 and at Y122.42 from Y121.93 late Tuesday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar is at Y89.93 from Y90.18 and at CHF1.0748 from CHF1.0830, while the pound is at $1.5450 from $1.5440.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 80.427 from 80.877.
Bernanke said the U.S. economy still needs record-low interest rates for several months at least because the recovery from its deep recession is expected to be slow. The Fed chief also said the U.S. central bank is actively looking at what tools to use once the economy will need higher rates.
Outside Bernanke's testimony, the vacillation between a willingness to embrace risk and the desire to shun it remains the key driver for markets, analysts said.
"[Tuesday] we were in risk aversion mode, and [Wednesday] we've retraced some of that move," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital.
The strength in the euro and other risk-sensitive currencies in morning trading reflected gains in U.S. stocks, a key barometer of investor sentiment towards risk.
Public-sector strikes in Greece, Spain and Portugal over budget cuts are once again putting the spotlight on the debt woes of the euro zone as markets wait to see if Greece will come to the bond markets for more money before the end of the week.
Greek officials have suggested the country's EUR5 billion bond offering can't be launched while the country is on strike, but it remains unclear whether Athens still plans to offer the bonds before the week is out.
-By Don Curren, Dow Jones Newswires; 416-306-2020; don.curren@dowjones.com
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