Ilustrasi perhitungan profit/loss hasil Transaksi

Ilustrasi Trading USD/JPY di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta

Initial margin in ( deposit awal) Rp. 100 juta atau $ 10,000
Jenis mata uang obyek transaksi Yen Jepang

Dasar pertimbangan ; fluktuasi harian berkisar 100 s.d 150 poin dalam 3 bulan terakhir.

Target profit minimal per hari $ 100 atau 10 poin net.

Ilustrasi I.

Pada saat harga mau naik, misal Nasabah A beli USD/JPY di level harga 88.97 / 89.00 kemudian ditutup atau dijual dilevel harga 89.15 / 89.18 sebanyak 1 lot. Jadi,

Rumus perhitungan net profit :

= {(Open price – Closing price )/Liquidation price
x Contract Size x Jumlah lot }– (fee x jmlh lot)

= { ( 89.15 – 89.00 )/89.00 x $ 100,000 x 1 lot }- ( $ 50 x 1 lot )
= $ 168,50 - $ 50
= $ 118.50 perhari


Ilustrasi II.

Pada saat harga mau turun, misal Jual USD/JPY di level harga 89.15/89.18 kemudian ditutup atau dibeli dilevel harga 88.97/ 89.00 sebanyak 1 lot. Jadi,

Rumus perhitungan net profit :

= {(Open price – Closing price )/ Liquidation price x Contract Size x Jumlah lot }– (fee x jmlh lot)

= { ( 89.15 – 89.00 )/ 89.00 x $ 100,000 x 1 lot }- ( $ 50 x 1 lot )

= $ 168,50 - $50
= $ 118,50 perhari

Jika lama waktu trading adalah 1 bulan dengan asumsi 20 hari kerja (HK).
Maka asumsi dalam 1 bulan berpotensi mendapatkan keuntungan

= 20 HK x $118,50 ( level harga sekarang)
= $ 2370 atau Rp. 23.700.000,- bersih (rate Rp. 10.000,-/1 usd )

CHARTING MARKETS:Dollar Soldiers On, Dollar/Yen Generally Weak

By Stephen Cox, CMT
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMNNEW YORK

Dow Jones)--In general, it's the specifics of technical analysis that will come back to bite you.

Specifically, is the weak dollar/yen cross discounting a downturn of the Dollar Index? That may be the case if dollar/yen falls below a nearby technical support level.

The dollar is generally strong Thursday. That's not news given the uptrend of the Dollar Index since November. The Dollar Index, as of this writing, is trading near 80.900, and so is close to the top of its uptrend since November. See chart at

http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3521

On the other hand, what may turn out to be newsy is an imminent downturn of the index given its recent test of the 81.163-82.820 resistance band, which, I believe, may include an important top.

If the dollar is set up for a downturn then I wonder if that event is being anticipated by Thursday's conspicuous weakness of the dollar/yen cross as shown on the daily chart. See chart at

http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3522

In contrast with the Dollar Index chart above, this chart shows that the dollar's uptrend against the yen beginning in November broke down in January. I estimate that the dollar is going for Y88.01 target support, which may be an interim bottom. If such a bottom doesn't materialize then the dollar would be going for support at Y86.34.

In any case the dollar is weak below Y90.77, which now is the nearest stop for trades based on the daily chart.

The question without a clear answer is this: Would a dollar move below Y88.01 more or less coincide with a Dollar Index fall away from the 81.163-82.820 resistance band? If that turns out then the dollar/yen will have anticipated a general downturn of the dollar.

There's always the prospect of a big dollar bounce from Y88.01 and corresponding Dollar Index move above 81.163-82.820 resistance of course. The point is that the answer may be as close as the dollar is to Y88.01.

(Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones Newswires. He can be reached at 212-416-2212 or by email at stephen.cox@dowjones.com.)

Bernanke Eases Worries About Monetary Tightening

Published: Wednesday, 24 Feb 2010 | 1:56 PM ET
Text Size
By: Reuters

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that a weak job market and tame inflation warrant low interest rates for "an extended period," dampening speculation a policy tightening might be nearing.

In his first appearance before Congress following a testy confirmation vote in the Senate last month, Bernanke offered a relatively somber assessment of the U.S. economy despite recent signs of strong growth.

The country has lost 8.4 million jobs in a little more than two years in the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression. The Fed chief said job losses were abating, but also acknowledged the recession's toll on American workers.

"Notwithstanding the positive signs, the job market remains quite weak," Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee.

Bernanke said the U.S. central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee was prepared to support the economy with extraordinary stimulus for some time.

"The FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions—including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations—are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period," he said, echoing the Fed's most recent policy statement in late January.

Fed officials have suggested they would likely wait several months after removing the "extended period" phrase from their policy statement before proceeding to raise the benchmark overnight interbank interest rate.

U.S. stocks were solidly higher as bank shares benefited from Bernanke's vow to keep rates on hold for a prolonged period, ignoring a surprisingly weak report on new home sales report that highlighted the Fed's predicament.

New home sales slumped more than 11 percent in January even as the central bank's purchase of mortgage-related bonds and a home-buyer tax credit continued to support the market. Many analysts worry things could get even uglier over coming months, after both those programs expire.

"We may be in for a rough ride in housing," said Adam York, economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Budget Politics

Commercial real estate, where defaults are supposed to spike this year, also remains a key concern. Bernanke called it "the biggest credit issue we still have."

Bernanke's reassurances about keeping rate increases at bay also helped U.S. government bonds erase losses, and drove the dollar lower against the euro and Japanese yen. Interest rate futures pared expectations of rate hikes before year-end.

Legislators on both sides of the isle used the hearing to play out the ongoing tug-of-war in Congress over budget deficits. Committee Chairman Barney Frank leaned on Bernanke to argue that the fiscal stimulus measures enacted by Democrats have helped alleviate some of the nation's employment losses.

Republicans, for their part, wanted Bernanke's view on the long-term implications of the government's funding gap, which he said was not on a sustainable path.

"Under current projections, we have a deficit and a debt that will continue to grow," Bernanke said. Still, Bernanke said he did not believe the U.S. credit rating would be downgraded.

Sticks to Script

The Fed last week surprised markets by raising the discount rate it charges on direct emergency loans to banks.

The increase spurred fears that the central bank was about to embark on a broader push for higher borrowing costs, even though the Fed maintained the federal funds rate, its main policy tool, in a range of zero to 0.25 percent.

The central bank said the discount rate move was an effort to pull back on the measures it had taken to increase liquidity in financial markets, and did not presage tighter monetary policy, a message repeated by Bernanke on Wednesday.

"He stuck to the playbook," said John Canally, an economist at LPL Financial in Boston. "The Fed is trying to back away from its liquidity measures and to reduce its balance sheet somewhat, but the Fed is going keep rates low for an extended period."

Bernanke said, however, that the time would come for tighter policy and he argued the Fed possesses a broad array of tools to remove such accommodation when the time is right.

Among the Fed's options, he said, are reserve-draining transactions with financial institutions. One such program, a "term deposit facility" that would give banks the incentive to park their money at the central bank, could be operational shortly after being tested this spring, the Fed said in its semiannual report to Congress.

Most analysts do not expect the Fed to raise the benchmark federal funds rate until sometime in the second half of the year, at the earliest. Similarly, a Reuters poll released Wednesday showed economists expect the European Central Bank to keep euro zone interest rates on hold until the fourth quarter.

While the Fed and ECB appear to be heading toward a tightening, the situation is less clear in Britain. Bank of England policy-maker Adam Posen told Reuters Insider that the BoE would expand its quantitative easing program "if we have to."

Acknowledging congressional efforts to overhaul financial regulation in the wake of a severe crisis, Bernanke urged lawmakers to preserve the confidentiality of banks who borrow from the Fed's emergency discount window. However, he added that officials would support disclosing borrowing at other special lending facilities, though with a lag.

He defended the central bank's role in bank supervision, which is under threat from key proposals in the Senate, saying information gleaned from overseeing banks was critical in helping guide its response to the crisis.

USD In 'Buy On Any Weakness' Territory - Technician

USD remains in a "buy on any weakness" position, says Auerbach Grayson technical strategist Richard Ross. In charting USD index, DXY currently at 80.782, technician notes a golden cross--crossing of 50- and 200-day moving averages--was formed a week ago, putting in a robust level of support around 78.6 and signaling a likely move up to at least 82. Ignore Bernanke or Greece or anything else, for now, until "market can find the 'sweet spot between arrogance and despair,'" says Ross.

MARKET TALK: EUR May Weaken On Renewed Greek Debt Worries

EUR may fall, as S&P's announcement overnight that it may cut Greek rating by 1 or 2 notches within next month fueling speculation that European risk aversion to keep growing, says Shinkin Central Bank senior dealer Jun Kato. "That was the news that investors were waiting for (to sell the euro)," he says. Adds S&P's announcement likely to weigh on EUR in coming sessions, investors will pay attention to comments from European officials regarding debt problems. Adds USD/JPY biased down over longer term as Fed Bernanke, as expected, signaled overnight Fed won't hike its rates for now, keeping interest rate differentials between Japan, U.S. narrow. His comments helped USD/JPY overnight by lifting stocks, but such effects should be "short-lived," he says. Dealers tip 89.80-90.50 range, vs 90.19 last. EUR/USD may trade in 1.3480-1.3580 range vs 1.3538 last. EUR/JPY may trade in 121.50-122.50 range vs 122.11 last. Adds investors will pay attention to U.S. durable goods sales data due later in day; Dow Jones poll of economists tip January's total orders +1.5%

WORLD FOREX: Dollar Retreats As Bernanke Reaffirms Low Rates

The dollar retreated against the euro and the yen Wednesday after testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pointed to continued low interest rates.

Market reaction to Bernanke's remarks intensified as his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee progressed, pushing the euro to a session high at $1.3627 and the dollar to a session low of Y89.76 against the yen.

"It's trading off Bernanke's comments," said C.J. Gavsie, managing director, corporate and institutional foreign exchange sales, at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

"It's all about the interest rate [outlook] as far as how soon rates will be on the move, and the market adjusting to Bernanke's comments," Gavsie said.

Wednesday morning, the euro is at $1.3616 from $1.3496 and at Y122.42 from Y121.93 late Tuesday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar is at Y89.93 from Y90.18 and at CHF1.0748 from CHF1.0830, while the pound is at $1.5450 from $1.5440.

The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 80.427 from 80.877.

Bernanke said the U.S. economy still needs record-low interest rates for several months at least because the recovery from its deep recession is expected to be slow. The Fed chief also said the U.S. central bank is actively looking at what tools to use once the economy will need higher rates.

Outside Bernanke's testimony, the vacillation between a willingness to embrace risk and the desire to shun it remains the key driver for markets, analysts said.

"[Tuesday] we were in risk aversion mode, and [Wednesday] we've retraced some of that move," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital.

The strength in the euro and other risk-sensitive currencies in morning trading reflected gains in U.S. stocks, a key barometer of investor sentiment towards risk.

Public-sector strikes in Greece, Spain and Portugal over budget cuts are once again putting the spotlight on the debt woes of the euro zone as markets wait to see if Greece will come to the bond markets for more money before the end of the week.

Greek officials have suggested the country's EUR5 billion bond offering can't be launched while the country is on strike, but it remains unclear whether Athens still plans to offer the bonds before the week is out.

-By Don Curren, Dow Jones Newswires; 416-306-2020; don.curren@dowjones.com

Bernanke Says about Fed budget USA

EUR Extends Gains Vs USD
EUR has extended its gains vs USD and notched a session high at 1.3627, according to EBS via CQG, although it remains within recent ranges. USD is being pressured by indications from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the US central bank remains sidelined in terms of monetary tightening. EUR has since slipped to $1.3615. GBP at 1.5459

Bernanke : Budget Deficit Of Around 2.5-3.0% Of GDP Sustainable
Bernanke Says Budget Path "Not Sustainable"

In answer to sustainability of budget path, Bernanke notes the forecasts of structural deficit range from 4% to 7% of GDP and are unsustainable. Under current projections, he says "we need to look at path of trajectory of deficit."

Bernanke Does Not Expect Federal Debt Default
In answer to Rep Frank question on federal debt, Bernanke says does not anticipate of US defaulting on debt or a ratings downgrade.

Bernanke Says Stimulus Did Help Job Situation
Rep Frank asks Bernanke about importance of stimulus policy to growth and jobs. Bernanke says most economists would agree stimulus policy did add jobs above what the baseline trend would suggest

Bernanke Says about Reserve Rate USA

Bernanke says rates to stay low for long time
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that a weak job market and low inflation would likely allow the central bank to keep interest rates at very low levels for a long time.

Bernanke Says Reserve Rate Change Will Effect Longer Yields
Bernanke said, "By increasing the interest rate on reserves, the Federal Reserve will be able to put significant upward pressure on all short-term interest rates. Actual and prospective increases in short-term interest rates will be reflected in turn in longer-term interest rates and in financial conditions more generally."

Bernanke: Discount Rate Hike Was Move Toward Normalizing
Bernanke said the increase in the discount rate was made "to discourage banks from relying on the discount window rather than private funding markets for short-term credit." He views this as a move to normalizing lending to commercial banks through the discount window. (KGM)


EUR Settles Down In Wake Of Bernanke Comments
After some choppy trading that saw it rise to a session high of 1.3597 on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony, EUR has settled back to the 1.3560 area. The biggest impact of Bernanke's message of continued low rates was on the USD/JPY pair, which slipped to a session low at 89.78, according to EBS via CQG, before rebounding to current level at 89.84. (DBC)


Rate Futures Prices Up On Bernanke, Weak Data
U.S. rate futures prices hit intraday highs across the curve, reflecting expectations for lower yields. Move occurs as Bernanke says rates need to stay very low, that inflation will remain subdued for a while, and as data shows new home sales plunging to record low. Quarterly 2010-12 Eurodollar futures recently up as much as 6 BP. Mar 10-yr Tsy notes take out Tues' high, reaching 118-11. Resistance at last week's top of 118-13+. Mar 30-yr Tsy bonds hit 2-week high of 118-09 as 30-yr cash yield equivalent falls below 4.625%.

New York Funding Rates Set Lower
ICAP's US quotes on interbank lending are set lower Wednesday morning, with the 1-mo New York funding rate at lower 0.2156% from 0.2175% Tuesday and the 3-mo rate lower to 0.2512% from 0.2569%. Earlier Tuesday, the BBA quoted the benchmark 3-mo dollar Libor rate unchanged at 0.25194% from Tuesday

New Home Sales Tumble to Record Low in January

Sales of newly built U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly fell to a record low in January, according to government data on Wednesday that hinted at potential trouble for the fragile housing market recovery. New home sales plummeted 11.2 percent in January.

The Commerce Department said sales dropped 11.2 percent to a 309,000 unit annual rate, the lowest level since records started in January 1963, from an upwardly revised 348,000 in December.

It was the third straight month that new home sales fell and the percentage decline in January was the largest in a year.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected new home sales to increase to a 360,000 unit annual pace from December's previously reported 342,000 units.


The January decline will heighten fears about the fledgling recovery in housing. Economists were already worried that an improvement in sales in the second half of last year could falter as various government support programs are withdrawn.

Bernanke: Discount Rate Hike Shouldn't Raise Borrowing Costs

In his preapred testimony, Fed chairman Bernanke said last week's increase in the emergency lending rate to banks doesn't mean wider borrowing costs for consumers and companies will also rise any time soon

Outlooks for nine major currency pairs today

Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:

Immediate Range Larger Range
USD/JPY 89.90-90.55 89.69-91.29
EUR/USD 1.3494-1.3589 1.3442-1.3691
AUD/USD 0.8877-0.8975 0.8845-0.9071
NZD/USD 0.6894-0.6995 0.6803-0.7058
GBP/USD 1.5392-1.5474 1.5345-1.5575
USD/CHF 1.0786-1.0848 1.0710-1.0898
USD/CAD 1.0500-1.0578 1.0379-1.0631
EUR/JPY 121.55-122.70 121.37-124.56
EUR/GBP 0.8745-0.8791 0.8699-0.8836

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate with bearish bias. Pair undermined by unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid higher investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge up 7.17% at 21.37) as U.S. stocks fell overnight (DJIA off 0.97%, Nasdaq off 1.28%), economic optimism deflated after unexpectedly large drop in U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index (declined to 46.0 in February from revised 56.5 in January, vs forecast for 54.8), news Greece's top banks had been downgraded. USD/JPY also undermined by Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields. But USD/JPY losses tempered by USD demand for import settlements, caution heading into 1500 GMT Fed Chairman Bernanke's Senate testimony which market participants watching for clues on Fed's plans to exit stimulus policy. Other data focus: 2350 GMT Japan January provisional trade statistics, January corporate service price index, 1500 GMT U.S. January new home sales. USD/JPY daily chart negative-biased as spot broke below uptrend line from Feb. 4 low of 88.54 (now at 90.55, matching previous base set Thursday), stochastics falling from overbought, positive MACD histogram bars contracting. Support at 89.90 (yesterday's low); breach would target 89.69 (Feb. 16 low), then 89.56 (Feb. 12 low), 89.12 (Feb. 8 low) and 88.54 (Feb. 4 reaction low). Resistance at 90.55; breach would expose upside to 91.29 (yesterday's high), then 91.90 (Monday's high), 92.14 (Friday's high, just below 200-day moving average) and 92.43 (Jan. 12 high).

EUR/USD - to trade with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by unwinding of long-EUR carry trades on higher risk aversion, surprise drop in German Ifo German business climate index to 95.2 in February from 95.8 in January (vs forecast for rise to 96.4), persistent worries over euro-zone fiscal problems, Fitch Ratings' downgrade of 3 Greek banks' covered bonds; BOE Gov. King's comment that recovery in euro zone "appears to have stalled." Data focus: 0700 GMT Germany revised 4Q GDP, 0710 GMT Germany March GfK consumer climate survey, 1000 GMT euro-zone December new industrial orders, 1000 GMT ECB's Smaghi speaks. EUR/USD daily chart mixed as MACD in bullish mode, but stochastics bearish at oversold. Support at 1.3494 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.3442 (9-month low hit Friday), then 1.3420 (May 18 reaction low), psychological 1.3400 and 1.3315 (projected base of descending channel formed with Dec. 3 high of 1.5141 and Dec. 22 low of 1.4216). Resistance at 1.3589 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 1.3691 (yesterday's high), then 1.3789 (Feb. 17 reaction high), 1.3801 (Feb. 11 high) and 1.3839 (Feb. 9 reaction high).

AUD/USD - to trade with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by unwinding of long-AUD carry trades on heightened risk aversion, softer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 4.68 yesterday at 272.1). But AUD/USD losses tempered by Aussie-U.S. yield gap, expectations for further rate hikes by RBA this year. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia 4Q labour price index, 4Q construction work done. AUD/USD daily chart negative-biased as stochastics bearish at overbought, positive MACD histogram bars contracting, bearish key-reversal-day pattern completed yesterday. Support at 0.8877 (yesterday's low, matching Feb. 16 & Friday's low); breach would target 0.8845 (Feb. 15 low), then 0.8781 (Feb. 12 low) and 0.8707 (Feb. 10 low). Resistance at 0.8975 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 0.9071 (yesterday's high, coinciding with 100-day moving average), then 0.9152 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9330-0.8576 Jan.14-Feb.5 decline).

NZD/USD - to trade with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by unwinding of long-NZD carry trades on stronger risk aversion, softer commodity prices. But NZD/USD losses tempered by Kiwi-U.S. yield advantage. NZD/USD daily chart negative-biased as stochastics bearish, positive MACD histogram bars contracting. Support at 0.6894 (yesterday's low, matching Feb. 12 low); breach would expose downside to 0.6803 (5-month low hit Feb. 5), then psychological 0.6700 level and 0.6682 (Sept. 2 reaction low). Resistance at 0.6995 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 0.7058 (yesterday's high), then 0.7079 (Feb. 16 and Feb. 17 high), 0.7122 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7441-0.6803 Jan. 14-Feb. 5 decline) and 0.7138 (55-day moving average).

GBP/USD - to trade with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by capital flight to safe-haven USD amid inflamed investor risk aversion, official nod for weaker GBP, persistent investor concerns over weak UK fiscal situation; very dovish delivery yesterday from MPC members before UK Treasury Select Committee: BOE Gov. King offered very cautious outlook for UK economy with risks to downside, leaving door open to eventual resumption of central bank's quantitative-easing program, while BOE's Miles said, "If the news is that the economic outlook seems even weaker, inflation pressures lower... I think there's a strong case then for expanding further the asset purchases." GBP/USD daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, while stochastics stay suppressed at oversold, suggesting sideways or lower GBP/USD trading near-term . Support at 1.5392 (yesterday's low); breach would target 1.5345 (9-month low hit Friday), then psychological 1.5300 and 1.5271 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of advance from Jan. 23, 2009 low of 1.3500 to Aug. 5 high of 1.7042). Resistance at 1.5474 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 1.5575 (yesterday's high), then 1.5687 (Thursday's high), 1.5816 (Feb. 17 high), 1.5830 (previous base set Dec. 30) and 1.5848 (previous base set Feb. 1).

USD/CHF - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Pair underpinned by broadly stronger USD undertone, fears of more CHF-selling FX intervention by SNB: traders suspect central bank yesterday bought EUR/CHF during Asian & European trading near 1.4650. But USD/CHF topside limited by unwinding of short-CHF carry trades on higher risk aversion. Daily chart mixed as stochastics stay elevated at overbought, MACD neutral. Resistance at 1.0848 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0898 (7-month high hit Friday), then 1.0934 (July 30 reaction high) and 1.1020 (June 24 reaction high). Support at 1.0786 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 1.0710 (yesterday's low), then 1.0644 (Feb. 17 low), 1.0623 (Feb. 11 low) and 1.0605 (Feb. 9 reaction low).

USD/CAD - to trade with risks skewed higher. Pair underpinned by increased investor risk aversion, stronger global USD, weaker commodity and oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $1.45 yesterday at $78.86/barrel). USD/CAD daily chart positive-biased as stochastics rising from oversold; negative MACD histogram bars contracting. Resistance at 1.0578 (yesterday's and Feb. 12 high); breach would expose upside to 1.0631 (Feb. 11 high), then 1.0707 (Feb. 10 high), 1.0780 (Nov. 6 & Feb. 5 high, near 200-day moving average) and 1.0869 (Nov. 2 reaction high). Support at 1.0500 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 1.0379 (yesterday's low), then 1.0368 (Monday's low), 1.0301 (Jan. 20 low) and 1.0246 (Jan. 19 low).

EUR/JPY - to trade with risks skewed lower. Cross undermined by unwinding of carry trades amid increased risk aversion, persistent worries over euro-zone sovereign debt problems; but downside limited by caution before U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke's Senate testimony today. EUR/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish. Support at 121.55 (yesterday's low), then at 121.37 (Feb. 12 reaction low); breach would expose downside to 120.67 (1-year low hit Feb. 5), then psychological 120.00 level. Resistance at 122.70 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 124.56 (yesterday's high), then 125.23 (Monday's high), 125.91 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of 134.39-120.67 Jan. 11- Feb. 5 decline) and 126.97 (Feb. 3 reaction high).

EUR/GBP - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish; bearish key-reversal-day pattern completed yesterday. Support at 0.8745 (previous cap set Feb. 16); breach would expose downside to 0.8699 (Friday's low), then 0.8656 (Feb. 12 low) and 0.8627 (Jan. 29 low). Resistance at 0.8791 (hourly chart); breach would target 0.8836 (yesterday's high, coinciding with 55-day moving average), then 0.8846 (Feb. 11 high), 0.8933 (100-day moving average) and 0.9028 (Jan. 12 reaction high).

-By Jerry Tan, Dow Jones Newswires; (65) 6415-4046; Jerry.tan@dowjones.com

USD/JPY May Fall; But May Hold Above 89.90-Dealer

USD/JPY biased down as weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence data overnight damp investors' risk-taking appetite as suggests U.S. consumer spending to remain weak, which could in turn hurt jobs market; still, pair looks supported around 89.90 by importers' orders as many want to settle their accounts ahead of month-end, says Tokyo Forex and Ueda Harlow senior dealer Masanobu Ishikawa. "Sentiment-wise, the dollar should continue falling, but Japanese firms' account-settling orders should slow the move, at least." Adds, market paying attention to Fed Bernanke's semi-annual testimony later in day; he's likely to again signal Fed won't hike rates near term, which should be USD-negative. Another focus would be U.S. January new home sales (tipped +3.8% from 7.6% fall previously.) USD/JPY may trade in 89.90-90.50 range vs 90.20 last; EUR/USD may trade in 1.3420-1.3560 range vs 1.3513 last. EUR/JPY may trade in 121.40-122.40 range, Ishikawa says; pair last at 121.88

ASIA OUTLOOK:

Risk aversion likely the theme for regional stock markets, after Wall Street falls on weaker-than-expected consumer confidence data. JPY strength could mean exporters particularly hard hit in Japan. FX markets likely to stay in range as traders watch for Fed chief Bernanke's testimony for any clues on Fed's plans to exit stimulus policy. USD/JPY at 90.20 vs 90.18 in late NY trade, EUR/USD at 1.3509 vs 1.3496, EUR/JPY at 121.86 vs 121.93. On the data slate: Japan corporate services price index, provisional trade at 2350 GMT, Australia labor price index, construction work done at 0030 GMT, HK GDP at 0830 GMT, Malaysia CPI at 0900 GMT, Malaysia GDP at 1000 GMT, India railway budget, Vietnam industrial output. Later there's German Gfk consumer climate survey, EU industrial orders. ECB member Smaghi speaks, U.S. mortgage applications, new home sales, Treasury Secretary Geithner testifies, Fed chief Bernanke testifies, U.S. oil inventories.

USD, JPY Gain Strongly On Sapped Risk Appetite

EUR/USD down on day, as risk saps from markets on the back of disappointing US consumer confidence data, along with renewed concerns over Greek debt. EUR/USD at 1.3547 from 1.3597 late Mon, according to EBS via CQG. USD/JPY recently hit intraday low, at 90.04 from 91.13, while EUR/JPY down more than 1.5% from late Mon.

Dollar Extends Losses vs Yen on Low Consumer Confidence

The dollar accelerated losses against the yen and gains against the euro Tuesday,
after markets, already keyed up for testimony from the Federal Reserve chief later
this week, saw sinking U.S. consumer confidence as a red light for risk.

Consumer confidence fell in February to the lowest in 10 months, as consumers'
short-term outlook for the jobs market worsened, according to a private report
released on Tuesday.

"I'm not surprised to see the forex markets reacting to (consumer confidence) by
shifting positions into safer assets," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist
at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "The headline may be overstating the softness in
consumer behavior but it highlights risks to the economic recovery going forward.

"The shift from government-induced growth to consumer-led growth will not be without
disappointment. We can't see fed funds going up before the fourth-quarter of this year.
In the short-term, safer assets, such as the yen, will get a bit of a boost," he added.

The dollar touched a session low of 90.28 and last traded at about 90 yen
[JPY=X 90.04 -1.09 (-1.2%) ], from around 90.75 before the data. Risk aversion
boosted the dollar slightly against the euro, which last traded down at near $1.35
[EUR=X 1.3535 -0.0058 (-0.43%) ], from $1.3560 before the data.

Investors had already shown themselves wary earlier in the session as data showed that
U.S. home prices dipped unexpectedly in December.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas showed
a 0.2 drop in December from November, with a 3.1 percent annual drop. Analysts surveyed
by Reuters had expected month-over-month prices to be flat.

Caution ahead of Bernanke's testimony cut demand for risk in Tuesday trade, as well,
helping the U.S. dollar recover from early losses and keeping the euro close to a
nine-month low.

The market will be looking for any Bernanke comments on the Fed's decision late last
week to raise its discount rate — the rate charged to banks for emergency loans, which
was lowered after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Early demand for euros fizzled Tuesday after data showed Germany's Ifo business sentiment i
ndex unexpectedly fell this month, and Italian confidence data and consumer spending
numbers from France were also below forecast.

The single currency was knocked further after Klaus Abberger, economist for the Ifo think
tank, said the German economy — the euro zone's biggest — may have contracted in the
first quarter.

Analysts said the market remained wary of Greece's fiscal problems, which would keep
the euro vulnerable to selling even if it did benefit from short-term bouts of
profit-taking.

Elsewhere, sterling [GBP=X 1.5463 -0.0018 (-0.12%) ] lost nearly two cents from
its high of the day of $1.5574 to hit a session low of $1.5395 after Bank of England
policymakers said further asset purchases under its quantitative easing program were
possible.

EURO Melemah lagi terhadap USD

Selama perdagangan kemarin , didukung oleh pasar ekuitas yang lebih kuat, euro sempat menguat dan sebagai mata uang yang berkeuntungan yang sederhana terhadap dolar, dengan kata lain menguat hampir 1,3% pada sesi hari sebelumnya, tetapi sebagai sesi perdagangan New York mendapat berlangsung, mata uang yang umum bergerak ke wilayah negatif karena kekhawatiran kesehatan fiskal Yunani terus membebani sentimen investor.

Euro's slide "di perdagangan hari selasa, seorang analis mata uang di Danske Bank di Kopenhagen mengatakan "Selama tidak ada solusi yang kredibel situasi Yunani telah dikomunikasikan kepada pasar, euro akan tetap di bawah tekanan."

Hari Rabu di New York Euro berada di $ 1,3732 dari $ 1,3772 akhir Selasa, menurut EBS melalui CQG. Dolar di Y90.85 dari Y90.11, sementara euro berada di Y124.76 dari Y124.08. The U.K. pound berada di $ 1,5782 dari $ 1,5787. Dolar di CHF1.0690 dari CHF1.0660.

Indeks Dollar juga kembali ke area greenback ( gain) terhadap perdagangan mata uang utama dunia, dimana indeks USD berada pada level 79,841 dari 79,630.

Simon Property Group

Simon Property Group, Inc adalah sebuah S & P 500 perusahaan dan publik terbesar perusahaan real estate AS. Simon is a fully integrated real estate company which operates from five retail real estate platforms: regional malls, Premium Outlet Centers, The Mills, community/lifestyle centers and international properties. Simon adalah sepenuhnya terintegrasi perusahaan real estate yang beroperasi dari lima eceran real estat platform: daerah perbelanjaan, Premium Outlet Center, The Mills, masyarakat / gaya hidup properti pusat dan internasional. It currently owns or has an interest in 387 properties comprising 263 million square feet of gross leasable area in North America, Europe and Asia. Saat ini memiliki atau memiliki minat pada 387 properti yang terdiri dari 263 juta kaki persegi leasable bruto daerah di Amerika Utara, Eropa dan Asia. The Company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana and employs more than 5,000 people worldwide. Perusahaan berkantor pusat di Indianapolis, Indiana dan mempekerjakan lebih dari 5.000 orang di seluruh dunia. Simon Property Group, Inc. is publicly traded on the NYSE under the symbol SPG. Simon Property Group, Inc secara terbuka diperdagangkan di NYSE di bawah simbol SPG.

FOREX MARGIN TRADING

Introduction

Suatu informasi peluang bisnis investasi modern bersifat global dan tak terbatas waktu dan tempat, likuiditas tinggi, serta menguntungkan saat ini yaitu peluang bisnis di pasar uang ( money market).

Dan yang mungkin tidak Anda ketahui bahwa bisnis ini merupakan salah satu cara yang digunakan/dilakukan oleh bank-bank devisa, bank-bank komersial seperti BCA, BNI, Mandiri, BRI, Permata, City Bank dll, lembaga-lembaga keuangan seperti asuransi, dana pensiun dikelola dan dikembangkan dananya baik untuk kepentingan bank sendiri/lembaga atau kepentingan nasabahnya.

Bahkan dalam investasi direksa dana salah satu alternatif diversifkasi investasi produk reksa dana, investasinya oleh fund manager ( manajer investasi ) diletakkan di pasar uang.

Jika Anda menyadari bahwa dana yang didepositokan di Bank dikembangkan dalam bisnis yang saya tawarkan ini, artinya Anda berkesempatan meraih keuntungan yang lebih besar dengan melakukan transaksi sendiri di pasar global melalui PT Megah Tama Berjangka dibanding hanya mengharapkan bunga deposito yang maksimal 10% pertahun.

Dengan demikian jika Anda punya dana, berjiwa bisnis, punya keberanian bergerak dalam jalur bisnis yang progresif/ agresive ini kenapa tidak Anda lakukan sendiri pengembangan dana yang Anda miliki?

Mengapa Investasi melalui di PT.Megah Tama Berjangka?

Banyak orang bertanya mengapa harus berinvestasi sementara dana bisa disimpan dengan aman (asal bank tidak dilikuidasi) dibank komersial disekitar kita? Jawabannya adalah inflasi. Bila pertumbuhan biaya hidup harian lebih cepat dibanding pertumbuhan dana simpanan di bank, maka sebenarnya disadari atau tidak, dana yang disimpan secara ‘aman’ di bank, nilainya justru akan semakin berkurang. Untuk itu kita perlu melakukan cara lain yang lebih progresif dalam mengembangkan dana, sehingga bisa mencapai tujuan dalam hal keuangan. Melalui PT. Megah Tama Berjangka adalah pilihan yang tepat untuk mengembangkan dana secara progresif, karena merupakan perusahaan yang menyediakan layanan dalam bisnis investasi.

PT. Megah Tama Berjangka adalah perusahaan dengan bidang bisnis sebagai pialang/brokerage berjangka yang resmi terdaftar sebagai anggota PT. Bursa Berjangka Jakarta (BBJ) dan PT. Kliring Berjangka Indonesia (KBI) adalah sebagai penjamin terlaksananya transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah di bursa berjangka. Dan izin resmi dari Badan Pengawasan Perdagangan Komoditi (BAPPEPTI) sebagai lembaga pemerintah yang berwenang melakukan pengawasan dalam perdagangan komoditi berjangka.

Investasi bukan kegiatan yang hanya sekedar ‘menyimpan’ dana tetapi juga berlaku ‘menghasilkan’ dana yang lebih banyak. Bisnis di bidang pasar uang melalui PT. Megah Tama Berjangka prosedurnya mudah, untung tak terbatas dan resiko rugi bisa dibatasi dengan system manajemen resiko yang ada dalam system bisnis ini. Investor memiliki keleluasaan untuk bisa memilih sendiri batas/toleransi resiko yang diinginkan karena investor sendiri yang mengembangkan dana yang didepositkan di PT. MTB, dengan prinsip teori dasar investasi yang menyatakan “High Risk High return”.

Bagaimana Anda Bisa Mengembangkan Dana Melalui PT. MTB?

Melalui PT. MTB, investor bisa mendapatkan akses masuk pasar uang (Money market) yang merupakan pasar dunia yang memiliki likuiditas yang tinggi dengan cara melakukan transaksi valuta asing dengan sistem margin trading/ perdagangan dengan sistem jaminan.

Apa Pasar Uang itu?

Pasar uang ( Money market/forward market )adalah suatu arena dimana mata uang suatu negara diperjualbelikan (dikursjualbelikan) dengan mata uang asing lainnya. Penawaran dan permintaan harga mata uang asing tersebut didasarkan pada spot market interbank.

Pasar uang ini merupakan pasar yang paling likuiditas dengan perputaran uang mencapai US $ 1,7 trillyun setiap hari.

Pasar ini terjadi karena aktivitas bank-bank utama dunia, baik bank central komersial maupun devisa yang melakukan perdagangan/transaksi mata uang asing, untuk kepentingan bank itu sendiri ataupun untuk kepentingan nasabahnya, juga aktivitas perusahaan exportir /importir untuk kepentingan bisnisnya. Selain itu juga karena aktivitas investor yang melakukan transaksi untuk medapatkan keuntungan dari fluktuasi (melemah/menguatnya) nilai mata uang asing suatu negara terhadap mata uang asing lainnya.

Apa Kelebihan Bisnis Ini?

·Modal investasi dan keuntungan dapat di tarik setiap saat dalam jam kerja bank komersial yang ditunjuk.

·Keuntungan maksimal dengan resiko kerugian dapat dikontrol/dibatasi oleh investor sendiri.

·Waktu perdagangan 24 jam didukung 3 pasar utama yaitu Asia jam 06:50 s/d 15:30 wib, Eropa jam 14:00 s/d 24:00 wib dan Amerika jam 19:30 s/d 04:30 wib.

·Modal relatif kecil hanya 1% dari nilai kontrak standar perdagangan Valuta Asing di bank-bank utama dunia.

·Spread/selisih harga jual dan harga beli bank 3 poin.

·Komisi 25 usd single way (1 Lot)

·Anda medapatkan info terkini dari ekonomi global melalui jaringan infomasi di perusahaan kami dan didampingi market analyst/ Financial consultant dalam bisnis ini.

·Sistem tansaksi dua arah, artinya mata uang suatu negara melemah/turun atau menguat/naik terhadap US dollar tetap berpeluang mendapatkan keuntungan.

Dimana Tempat Aktivitas Pasar Uang?

Pasar uang secara umum bertempat di seluruh bank-bank utama dunia baik komersial maupun devisa yang ada dikota kota besar dunia seperti Sidney, Tokyo, Singapura, London, Toronto, New york dan kota-kota besar lainnya.

Berapa modal yang diperlukan?

Investasi yang diperlukan dalam perdagangan ini minimal US $ 10,000 dengan kurs @ Rp. 10.000,- dan sesuai kurs rupiah di bank saat ini/Floating rate. Jadi dengan kurs /nilai rupiah @ Rp. 10.000 untuk investasi US $ 10,000 diperlukan Rp. 100.000.000,00.

Bagaimana sistem perdagangannya?

Perdagangan valuta asing dilakukan antara bank-bank devisa/bank-bank komersial menggunakan sistem kontrak, dengan ukuran standart kontrak untuk perdagangan 1 unit (1 lot) US $ 100.000,00 dalam perdagangan di pasar spot interbank, modal yang dipergunakan harus senilai dengan standart kontrak yaitu US $ 100.000,00. Oleh karenanya dibentuk perdagangan dengan sistem margin/spot market margin trading sehingga investor dengan modal kecil tetap bisa bertransaksi dengan nilai kontrak yang sama dengan contract size sesungguhnya dalam perdagangan valuta asing yakni ukuran standar kontraknya US $ 100.000. Dengan sistem ini untuk memperdagangkan 1 unit atau 1 lot valuta asing sesuai standart kontrak perdagangan mata uang asing senilai US $ 100.000,00 ( Rp. 1 miliar kurs per USD Rp. 10.000,- )dalam spot market interbank hanya diperlukan jaminan US $ 1000 dal system perdagangan forex margin trading.

Bagaimana Mendapatkan Keuntungan Di Pasar Uang?

Di PT. Megah Tama Berjangka ada 5 macam mata uang (currency) yang diperdagangkan terhadap mata uang US Dollar (USD) yaitu; Euro (Eur), British Pounds Sterling (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD), Japanese Yen (JPY) dan Swiss France (CHF).

Untuk bisa melakukan transaksi beli atau jual valas/forex di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta seorang nasabah harus melalui perusahaan pialang ( PT. MTB adalah Perusahaan Pialang Berjangka/ perusahaan perantara untuk mengakses Bursa Berjangka Jakarta ). Dalam bertransaksi untuk mendapatkan harga beli/jual, seorang nasabah mendapatkan layanan melalui telpon atau melalui internet ( lebih popular dikenal dengan Online Trading ),dengan demikian dimanapun Anda berada selagi masih bisa tersambung ke telekomunikasi atau layanan internet bisa mengakses Bursa Berjangka Jakarta.

Nilai mata uang suatu negara berfluktuasi dengan kisaran 100 – 300 poin perhari dalam keadaan normal market. Dengan nilai pergerakkan perpoint untuk mata uang Euro, GBP, AUD adalah US $ 10, Yen Jepang US $ 10,Swis france (CHF) 9 US $.

Fluktuasi ini terjadi sebagai akibat adanya transaksi/ aksi jual dan beli yang hubungkan dengan supply and demand suatu mata uang karena berbagai kepentingan pelaku pasar yang berkaitan dengan mata uang asing.

Contoh Transaksi Valuta asing di pasar uang:

Investor A membuka account/setor USD 10.000 di rekening PT. MTB. Berdasarkan analisa pasar yang dilakukan market analyst selaku konsultan pendamping memberikan rekomendasi enter market membuka posisi /melakukan transaksi dengan posisi BUY mata uang GBP (pounds sterling) sebanyak 2 lot pada posisi 1.6500 karena diprediksi mata uang Inggris tersebut akan menguat terhadap US Dollar. Artinya investor A melepas Dollar dan pegang/membeli GBP. Dan benar beberapa saat kemudian mata uang Inggris tersebut menguat pada posisi 1.6550 dan pada saat harga tersebut investor A melakukan likuidasi/penutupan posisi yang terbuka dengan cara SELL/jual Sterlling dan kembali pegang US Dollar. Ini berarti investor A sudah untung 50 poin (1.6550 - 1.6500).

Berikut rumus perhitungan;

Untung/Rugi = (jmlh poin x nilai perpoin x jmlh lot x kurs rupiah) – ( fee perushaan x jmlh lot x kurs rupiah)

= (50 x 10 USD x 2 x Rp.10.000) – ( USD 50 x2 x Rp. 10.000)

= Rp. 10.000.000,00 - Rp. 1.000.000,00

= Rp. 9.000.000,00

Jadi keuntungan bersih dalam sekali transaksi adalah Rp.9.000..000,00 Jika dengan target profit sehari 1 % saja, dalam 20 hari kerja Anda sudah mendapatkan 20% (ini hanya sebagai ilustrasi saja).

Catatan: Untuk penghitungan kerugian dengan cara yang sama.

Bagaimana Manajemen Resikonya?

Faktor resiko merupakan pemikiran bagi setiap investor, resiko selalu membuat investor lebih berhati-hati dalam melakukan pilihan maupun dalam setiap pengambilan keputusan. Tetapi pada kenyataannya jarang sekali factor resiko dapat dikontrol dengan mudah. Misalnya, apakah seseorang yang baru membeli tanah dapat melimit/membatasi kerugian akibat penurunan harga? Bagaimana dengan seorang pemegang saham yang harga sahamnya sedang mengalami penurunan, apakah dapat dijual dengan cepat dan mudah pada harga yang diharapkan?

Dalam investasi di forex ini resiko dapat dengan mudah dikontrol atau dibatasi pada harga yang diinginkan oleh investor, sehingga besar kecilnya resiko dapat ditentukan dengan bijaksana berkat adanya bantuan dari broker dan sistem trading yang ada (misalnya dengan Stop Loss Order atau hedging posisi).

Bagaimana mengatasi kerugian dalam transaksi?

Dalam melakukan transaksi di Forex, tidak tertutup kemungkinan bahwa pergerakkan harga akan berlawanan dengan harapan kita semula, untuk itu kita harus tertuju pada: bagaimana agar kita dapat keluar dari keadaan ini dengan kerugian sekecil mungkin, bagaimana agar kita mendapatkan keadaan seimbang dan bagaimana caranya mengubah kerugian menjadi keuntungan.

Untuk melakukan ketiga hal tersebut di atas kita dapat melakukan teknik dasar yang umum dipergunakan untuk mengatasi kerugian; Cut loss,Switching,Locking & hedging dan Averaging,

Prosedur Menjadi Investor di PT. Megah Tama Berjangka

Membuka Rekening dengan nilai deposit ideal U$ 25,000 di PT. Megah Tama Berjangka

Menandatangani Customer Agreement (Buku Perjanjian Investor), Memberikan fotocopy KTP 1 lembar, memberikan kuasa kepada Acount Executive sebagai konsultan pribadi investor.

Penyetoran dana di Rekening BCA Cabang Sudirman Cabang Sudirman, Jakarta IDR 035-316-9359 atauUSD 035-316-9626 a/n PT. Megah Tama Berjangka

Bukti Sebagai Investor

Memperoleh tanda terima Bukti Penyetoran Dana (Margin Deposit Note), Memperoleh Buku Perjanjian Investor (Customer Agreement), Memperoleh Laporan Keuangan (Client Statement) setiap hari

krisis ekonomi masih akan terus berlanjut

Setelah krisis global mendera dunia, dengan kiblatnya utamanya adalah USA, kini negara-negara kecil mulai merasakan dampak dari krisis tersebut. Kondisi ekonomi US sendiri mulai membaik dengan di tandai sektor manufacture yang mulai membaik,penyediaan lapangan kerja, implasi yang terkendali yang semua itu terlihat dari nilai tukar USD yang mulai menguat. Namun sesungguhnya Bank-bank besar Amerika adalah menghadapi resiko yang besar karena terlalu banyak mengambil alih aset bermasalah yang terlalu besar. Ini akan mengakibatkan krisis masih menjadi sebab krisis berikutnya.

Beralih ke Uni Eropa sekarang negara-negara yang tergabung ke dalam EU mulai merasakan dampaknya krisis, yang di mulai dari negara Yunani kesulitan membayar hutang-hutangnya, kesulitan meyediakan lapangan pekerjaan bagi warganya. Jerman dan Perancis sebagai negara yang mempunyai kekuatan ekonomi terbesar di EU sudah mengalami kemunduran perumbuhan ekonomi yakni hanya 0.1 % di kuartal 4 tahun lalu. Perkiraan saya EU akan butuh waktu lama untuk bisa pulih karena setiap negara yang tergabung dalam EU mulai mengetatkan pengeluaran atau mengendalaikan sektor spending mereka, ini tentu berdampak pada sektor manufaktur dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Uni Eropa melemah dapat di lihat dari nilai tukar EURO yang terus melemah terhadap USD yakni 1.3624 ( 13 Februari 2010 jam 12.34 PM wib)

Pertanyaannya adalah kira-kira kawasan negara mana lagi yang akan merasakan dampak krisis secara individual? Saya memperkirakan adalah kawasan asia tenggara dan asia jauh timur ( jepang), karena belum lama kemarin asia timur sudah merasakan yang di tandai dengan malah likuditas di Bursa Abu Dabhi, Apapun maksud dari tulisan ini adalah sebagai hasil dari pantauan penulis yang memang tidak di sertai data-data. Bila Anda tertarik untuk mendukung,memperbaiki pandapat saya ini silahkan menanggapinya.