SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--China's yuan was steady against the U.S. dollar Tuesday, but one-year dollar-yuan nondeliverable forwards fell to a more than three-week low because of renewed speculation the Chinese currency will resume its appreciation, after the U.S. Treasury decided at the weekend to delay whether to label China a currency manipulator.
On the onshore over-the-counter market, the dollar was at CNY6.8258 around 0930 GMT, barely changed from Friday's close of CNY6.8256. It traded between CNY6.8256 and CNY6.8260. China's financial markets were closed Monday for the Tomb Sweeping holiday.
One-year dollar-yuan NDFs, however, were at 6.6311/6.6361, their lowest since 6.6250/6.6290 on March 12 and down from 6.6455/6.6485 late Friday.
Onshore, the People's Bank of China set the session's central parity rate at 6.8260, unchanged from Friday, though this was its lowest level in more than 10 months and below the level of 6.8261-6.8262 that some traders had anticipated given the dollar's strength overnight after strong U.S. jobs data.
Dollar-yuan NDFs fell sharply in Asian trading, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Saturday the U.S. Treasury would delay its semi-annual report to Congress on the currency policies of major trading partners. The report was originally due for issue April 15.
A number of U.S. lawmakers have been urging the Obama administration to label China a currency manipulator in the report.
"The lower NDFs are most likely because investors think the (report) delay could help ease tensions between the U.S. and China over the value of the yuan, as it gives China room to let the currency appreciate according to its own plan," said a Shanghai-based trader at a foreign bank.
Another Shanghai-based trader at a foreign bank said expectations of yuan appreciation have risen over the past few days.
"Some large global investment banks that had been conservative about the yuan appreciation issue have become more aggressive in selling the dollar in the NDF market since late last week," he said.
A Shanghai-based trader at a local bank said the U.S. Treasury's delay of the currency report appears to be a friendly, face-saving gesture toward China.
"Typically when the U.S. government does that, China will reward it with some friendly gesture as well," the trader said.
Another Shanghai-based trader at a local bank said, "the yuan appreciation trend seems to have begun," referring to the yuan's small yet steady gains this year.
But he added any larger yuan moves aren't likely to occur until May, after the China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing in May.
Selasa, 06 April 2010
Senin, 22 Maret 2010
WORLD FOREX: Euro Drops Below $1.35 On Greece Bailout Doubts
TORONTO, The euro slumped in mid morning trading Monday after a top Greek official said the future of the European Union is at stake if European leaders don't come up with a credible package to help Greece.
The euro plunged through the $1.3500 mark and hit a session low at $1.3463, its lowest level since March 2, after Greece Deputy Prime Minister Theodore Pangalos warned that if EU leaders fail to address the problem it will harm the integrity of the euro zone.
Speaking at a conference Monday, Pangalos called on European leaders to show their resolve during a summit this week by presenting a credible package to deter speculation against Greek government bonds. "If there is no tool, no weapon on the table...if the speculators are not worried about losing anything, then the euro has no meaning," Pangalos said.
The euro was already being pressured by the Greek situation in earlier trading.
"Clearly, sentiment is weighing on the euro with increased uncertainty about the Greek bailout by the European Union, and increasing uncertainty that will not materialize," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
Technical factors accelerated the euro's decline once it broke below $1.3500, he said. There's crucial technical support for the euro at $1.3405, Strauss said.
During mid morning trading Monday, the euro was at $1.3476 from $1.3535 and at Y121.29 from Y122.47, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y90.00 from Y90.50. The dollar was also at CHF1.0647 from CHF1.0610 while the pound was at $1.4984 from $1.5016.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 80.976 from 80.740. The euro was at CHF1.4352 from CHF1.4361.
Currency markets remain on alert for intervention from the Swiss National Bank as the euro sinks even further toward CHF1.43. Some analysts warn the Swiss central bank could be faced with an even more difficult task of halting the franc's rise if the euro slides below that October 2008 low.
Initially, the dollar benefited and the euro fell as the market digested a weekend interview by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in which she denied any plans to help Greece.
She warned against raising "false expectations" in financial markets that a solution will be found at the European Union summit starting this Thursday. She said Greece hadn't asked for any funding and that the issue isn't on the agenda for the summit.
But Merkel is open to aid for Greece from the International Monetary Fund in an emergency, her spokesman said Monday.
"In this case, financial aid from the IMF is definitely a topic for the chancellor and the German government," spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm said Monday.
Currency markets were also rocked by events on the other side of the world Friday when India announced a surprise increase in interest rates, bringing speculation that other robust emerging markets, especially those in Asia, will follow suit. The prospect of reduced global demand hit commodity prices and added to downward pressure on global stock markets.
The pound, meanwhile, wasn't getting much help from the latest weekend polls showing that the opposition Conservative Party's lead is still around six basis points, and that a hung parliament remains the most likely outcome of an election.
The euro plunged through the $1.3500 mark and hit a session low at $1.3463, its lowest level since March 2, after Greece Deputy Prime Minister Theodore Pangalos warned that if EU leaders fail to address the problem it will harm the integrity of the euro zone.
Speaking at a conference Monday, Pangalos called on European leaders to show their resolve during a summit this week by presenting a credible package to deter speculation against Greek government bonds. "If there is no tool, no weapon on the table...if the speculators are not worried about losing anything, then the euro has no meaning," Pangalos said.
The euro was already being pressured by the Greek situation in earlier trading.
"Clearly, sentiment is weighing on the euro with increased uncertainty about the Greek bailout by the European Union, and increasing uncertainty that will not materialize," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
Technical factors accelerated the euro's decline once it broke below $1.3500, he said. There's crucial technical support for the euro at $1.3405, Strauss said.
During mid morning trading Monday, the euro was at $1.3476 from $1.3535 and at Y121.29 from Y122.47, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y90.00 from Y90.50. The dollar was also at CHF1.0647 from CHF1.0610 while the pound was at $1.4984 from $1.5016.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 80.976 from 80.740. The euro was at CHF1.4352 from CHF1.4361.
Currency markets remain on alert for intervention from the Swiss National Bank as the euro sinks even further toward CHF1.43. Some analysts warn the Swiss central bank could be faced with an even more difficult task of halting the franc's rise if the euro slides below that October 2008 low.
Initially, the dollar benefited and the euro fell as the market digested a weekend interview by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in which she denied any plans to help Greece.
She warned against raising "false expectations" in financial markets that a solution will be found at the European Union summit starting this Thursday. She said Greece hadn't asked for any funding and that the issue isn't on the agenda for the summit.
But Merkel is open to aid for Greece from the International Monetary Fund in an emergency, her spokesman said Monday.
"In this case, financial aid from the IMF is definitely a topic for the chancellor and the German government," spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm said Monday.
Currency markets were also rocked by events on the other side of the world Friday when India announced a surprise increase in interest rates, bringing speculation that other robust emerging markets, especially those in Asia, will follow suit. The prospect of reduced global demand hit commodity prices and added to downward pressure on global stock markets.
The pound, meanwhile, wasn't getting much help from the latest weekend polls showing that the opposition Conservative Party's lead is still around six basis points, and that a hung parliament remains the most likely outcome of an election.
China Construction Bank Cut 83% Of Foreign Currency Bonds Since Crisis-Xinhua
BEIJING,The China Construction Bank Corp. (CICHY), the country's second-biggest commercial lender by assets, reduced 83% of its foreign currency bond holdings since outbreak of the global financial crisis, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported Monday.
Reduction in the foreign currency bonds is seen as part of moves to avoid risks brought by the crisis, and the report praised the bank as a successful example among Chinese banks to reduce such holdings.
Value of the bonds cut by the bank was nearly $30 billion, the report said.
Reduction in the foreign currency bonds is seen as part of moves to avoid risks brought by the crisis, and the report praised the bank as a successful example among Chinese banks to reduce such holdings.
Value of the bonds cut by the bank was nearly $30 billion, the report said.
Kamis, 04 Maret 2010
US DATA WEEK AHEAD: Payrolls Seen Falling 75K; 9.8% Jobless Rate
By Kathleen Madigan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRESNEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The following are forecasts for this week's remaining data compiled by Dow Jones Newswires in a survey conducted Friday and Monday.
DATE TIME RELEASE PERIOD CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
(ET)
Friday 0830 Nonfarm Payrolls Feb -75K -20K
0830 Unemployment Rate Feb 9.8% 9.7%
0830 Avg Hrly Wages Feb +0.2% +0.2%
1500 Consumer Credit Jan -$4.0B -$1.7B-By Kathleen Madigan, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2466; kathleen.madigan@dowjones.com
(Deborah Lynn Blumberg contributed to this article)
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=ySsuUanM3n7EqK3Mxe1Ubg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 04, 2010 10:00 ET (15:00 GMT)
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRESNEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The following are forecasts for this week's remaining data compiled by Dow Jones Newswires in a survey conducted Friday and Monday.
DATE TIME RELEASE PERIOD CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
(ET)
Friday 0830 Nonfarm Payrolls Feb -75K -20K
0830 Unemployment Rate Feb 9.8% 9.7%
0830 Avg Hrly Wages Feb +0.2% +0.2%
1500 Consumer Credit Jan -$4.0B -$1.7B-By Kathleen Madigan, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2466; kathleen.madigan@dowjones.com
(Deborah Lynn Blumberg contributed to this article)
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=ySsuUanM3n7EqK3Mxe1Ubg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 04, 2010 10:00 ET (15:00 GMT)
Jobless Claims Fall in Sign That Employment May Thaw
Published: Thursday, 4 Mar 2010 | 8:41 AM ET
New claims for jobless benefits fell last week in a sign that layoffs may be easing as the economy slowly recovers.
The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 469,000. That nearly matches Wall Street analysts' estimates of 470,000.
Still, any improvement in the job market is likely to be slow, as companies remain reluctant to hire. Last week's drop only partly reverses a sharp rise in claims in the previous two weeks.
The drop in unemployment coincided with a considerable rise in productivity.
The four-week average of claims, which smooths out volatility, fell by 3,500 to 470,750. Despite the drop, the average has risen by about 20,000 since the beginning of the year.
Initial claims have been volatile in recent weeks as last month's severe snowstorms in the Northeast have distorted the data.
Claims rose sharply two weeks ago partly because several states processed a backlog of claims that had built up from previous weeks when government offices closed due to the bad weather. No states reported backlogs this week, a Labor Department analyst said.
The number of people continuing to claim benefits, meanwhile, fell more than expected to 4.5 million.
But the so-called continuing claims do not include millions of people who have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states, and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government.
Nearly 5.9 million people were receiving extended benefits in the week ended Feb. 13, the latest data available, up from about 5.7 million the previous week. The extended benefit data isn't seasonally adjusted and is volatile from week to week.
In a separate report, the government said productivity in the final three months of last year surged at a faster pace than previously thought as labor costs fell more rapidly.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that productivity jumped at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, even better than an initial estimate of a 6.2 percent growth rate. Unit labor costs fell at a rate of 5.9 percent, a bigger drop than the 4.4 percent decline initially estimated.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 05:43:07 04 Mar 2010
LinksList Documentid: 35704771
* As Stimulus Fades, So May Jobs
* Fed: Weak Economy to Keep Rates Low
* 10 Best Jobs for 2010
* More Economic News
The combination of rising productivity and falling labor costs bolsters company profits and helps keep inflation at bay. But it also puts American households under stress, leaving them with less income to increase consumer spending, the key ingredient to economic growth.
tulisan ini bersumber dari www.cnbc.com tujuannya hanyalah untuk data semata
New claims for jobless benefits fell last week in a sign that layoffs may be easing as the economy slowly recovers.
The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 469,000. That nearly matches Wall Street analysts' estimates of 470,000.
Still, any improvement in the job market is likely to be slow, as companies remain reluctant to hire. Last week's drop only partly reverses a sharp rise in claims in the previous two weeks.
The drop in unemployment coincided with a considerable rise in productivity.
The four-week average of claims, which smooths out volatility, fell by 3,500 to 470,750. Despite the drop, the average has risen by about 20,000 since the beginning of the year.
Initial claims have been volatile in recent weeks as last month's severe snowstorms in the Northeast have distorted the data.
Claims rose sharply two weeks ago partly because several states processed a backlog of claims that had built up from previous weeks when government offices closed due to the bad weather. No states reported backlogs this week, a Labor Department analyst said.
The number of people continuing to claim benefits, meanwhile, fell more than expected to 4.5 million.
But the so-called continuing claims do not include millions of people who have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states, and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government.
Nearly 5.9 million people were receiving extended benefits in the week ended Feb. 13, the latest data available, up from about 5.7 million the previous week. The extended benefit data isn't seasonally adjusted and is volatile from week to week.
In a separate report, the government said productivity in the final three months of last year surged at a faster pace than previously thought as labor costs fell more rapidly.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that productivity jumped at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, even better than an initial estimate of a 6.2 percent growth rate. Unit labor costs fell at a rate of 5.9 percent, a bigger drop than the 4.4 percent decline initially estimated.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 05:43:07 04 Mar 2010
LinksList Documentid: 35704771
* As Stimulus Fades, So May Jobs
* Fed: Weak Economy to Keep Rates Low
* 10 Best Jobs for 2010
* More Economic News
The combination of rising productivity and falling labor costs bolsters company profits and helps keep inflation at bay. But it also puts American households under stress, leaving them with less income to increase consumer spending, the key ingredient to economic growth.
tulisan ini bersumber dari www.cnbc.com tujuannya hanyalah untuk data semata
Jumat, 26 Februari 2010
Ilustrasi perhitungan profit/loss hasil Transaksi
Ilustrasi Trading USD/JPY di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta
Initial margin in ( deposit awal) Rp. 100 juta atau $ 10,000
Jenis mata uang obyek transaksi Yen Jepang
Dasar pertimbangan ; fluktuasi harian berkisar 100 s.d 150 poin dalam 3 bulan terakhir.
Target profit minimal per hari $ 100 atau 10 poin net.
Ilustrasi I.
Pada saat harga mau naik, misal Nasabah A beli USD/JPY di level harga 88.97 / 89.00 kemudian ditutup atau dijual dilevel harga 89.15 / 89.18 sebanyak 1 lot. Jadi,
Rumus perhitungan net profit :
= {(Open price – Closing price )/Liquidation price
x Contract Size x Jumlah lot }– (fee x jmlh lot)
= { ( 89.15 – 89.00 )/89.00 x $ 100,000 x 1 lot }- ( $ 50 x 1 lot )
= $ 168,50 - $ 50
= $ 118.50 perhari
Ilustrasi II.
Pada saat harga mau turun, misal Jual USD/JPY di level harga 89.15/89.18 kemudian ditutup atau dibeli dilevel harga 88.97/ 89.00 sebanyak 1 lot. Jadi,
Rumus perhitungan net profit :
= {(Open price – Closing price )/ Liquidation price x Contract Size x Jumlah lot }– (fee x jmlh lot)
= { ( 89.15 – 89.00 )/ 89.00 x $ 100,000 x 1 lot }- ( $ 50 x 1 lot )
= $ 168,50 - $50
= $ 118,50 perhari
Jika lama waktu trading adalah 1 bulan dengan asumsi 20 hari kerja (HK).
Maka asumsi dalam 1 bulan berpotensi mendapatkan keuntungan
= 20 HK x $118,50 ( level harga sekarang)
= $ 2370 atau Rp. 23.700.000,- bersih (rate Rp. 10.000,-/1 usd )
Initial margin in ( deposit awal) Rp. 100 juta atau $ 10,000
Jenis mata uang obyek transaksi Yen Jepang
Dasar pertimbangan ; fluktuasi harian berkisar 100 s.d 150 poin dalam 3 bulan terakhir.
Target profit minimal per hari $ 100 atau 10 poin net.
Ilustrasi I.
Pada saat harga mau naik, misal Nasabah A beli USD/JPY di level harga 88.97 / 89.00 kemudian ditutup atau dijual dilevel harga 89.15 / 89.18 sebanyak 1 lot. Jadi,
Rumus perhitungan net profit :
= {(Open price – Closing price )/Liquidation price
x Contract Size x Jumlah lot }– (fee x jmlh lot)
= { ( 89.15 – 89.00 )/89.00 x $ 100,000 x 1 lot }- ( $ 50 x 1 lot )
= $ 168,50 - $ 50
= $ 118.50 perhari
Ilustrasi II.
Pada saat harga mau turun, misal Jual USD/JPY di level harga 89.15/89.18 kemudian ditutup atau dibeli dilevel harga 88.97/ 89.00 sebanyak 1 lot. Jadi,
Rumus perhitungan net profit :
= {(Open price – Closing price )/ Liquidation price x Contract Size x Jumlah lot }– (fee x jmlh lot)
= { ( 89.15 – 89.00 )/ 89.00 x $ 100,000 x 1 lot }- ( $ 50 x 1 lot )
= $ 168,50 - $50
= $ 118,50 perhari
Jika lama waktu trading adalah 1 bulan dengan asumsi 20 hari kerja (HK).
Maka asumsi dalam 1 bulan berpotensi mendapatkan keuntungan
= 20 HK x $118,50 ( level harga sekarang)
= $ 2370 atau Rp. 23.700.000,- bersih (rate Rp. 10.000,-/1 usd )
CHARTING MARKETS:Dollar Soldiers On, Dollar/Yen Generally Weak
By Stephen Cox, CMT
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMNNEW YORK
Dow Jones)--In general, it's the specifics of technical analysis that will come back to bite you.
Specifically, is the weak dollar/yen cross discounting a downturn of the Dollar Index? That may be the case if dollar/yen falls below a nearby technical support level.
The dollar is generally strong Thursday. That's not news given the uptrend of the Dollar Index since November. The Dollar Index, as of this writing, is trading near 80.900, and so is close to the top of its uptrend since November. See chart at
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3521
On the other hand, what may turn out to be newsy is an imminent downturn of the index given its recent test of the 81.163-82.820 resistance band, which, I believe, may include an important top.
If the dollar is set up for a downturn then I wonder if that event is being anticipated by Thursday's conspicuous weakness of the dollar/yen cross as shown on the daily chart. See chart at
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3522
In contrast with the Dollar Index chart above, this chart shows that the dollar's uptrend against the yen beginning in November broke down in January. I estimate that the dollar is going for Y88.01 target support, which may be an interim bottom. If such a bottom doesn't materialize then the dollar would be going for support at Y86.34.
In any case the dollar is weak below Y90.77, which now is the nearest stop for trades based on the daily chart.
The question without a clear answer is this: Would a dollar move below Y88.01 more or less coincide with a Dollar Index fall away from the 81.163-82.820 resistance band? If that turns out then the dollar/yen will have anticipated a general downturn of the dollar.
There's always the prospect of a big dollar bounce from Y88.01 and corresponding Dollar Index move above 81.163-82.820 resistance of course. The point is that the answer may be as close as the dollar is to Y88.01.
(Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones Newswires. He can be reached at 212-416-2212 or by email at stephen.cox@dowjones.com.)
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMNNEW YORK
Dow Jones)--In general, it's the specifics of technical analysis that will come back to bite you.
Specifically, is the weak dollar/yen cross discounting a downturn of the Dollar Index? That may be the case if dollar/yen falls below a nearby technical support level.
The dollar is generally strong Thursday. That's not news given the uptrend of the Dollar Index since November. The Dollar Index, as of this writing, is trading near 80.900, and so is close to the top of its uptrend since November. See chart at
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3521
On the other hand, what may turn out to be newsy is an imminent downturn of the index given its recent test of the 81.163-82.820 resistance band, which, I believe, may include an important top.
If the dollar is set up for a downturn then I wonder if that event is being anticipated by Thursday's conspicuous weakness of the dollar/yen cross as shown on the daily chart. See chart at
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3522
In contrast with the Dollar Index chart above, this chart shows that the dollar's uptrend against the yen beginning in November broke down in January. I estimate that the dollar is going for Y88.01 target support, which may be an interim bottom. If such a bottom doesn't materialize then the dollar would be going for support at Y86.34.
In any case the dollar is weak below Y90.77, which now is the nearest stop for trades based on the daily chart.
The question without a clear answer is this: Would a dollar move below Y88.01 more or less coincide with a Dollar Index fall away from the 81.163-82.820 resistance band? If that turns out then the dollar/yen will have anticipated a general downturn of the dollar.
There's always the prospect of a big dollar bounce from Y88.01 and corresponding Dollar Index move above 81.163-82.820 resistance of course. The point is that the answer may be as close as the dollar is to Y88.01.
(Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones Newswires. He can be reached at 212-416-2212 or by email at stephen.cox@dowjones.com.)
Langganan:
Postingan (Atom)